rekordy: Timeline of the far future

Evidence: 100 • authority: 72

While, due to indeterminacy and possibly free will, the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events, if only in the broadest outline. These fields include astrophysics, which studies how planets and stars form, interact and die; particle physics, which has revealed how matter behaves at the smallest scales; evolutionary biology, which studies how life evolves over time; plate tectonics, which shows how continents shift over millennia; and sociology, which examines how human societies and cultures evolve. These timelines begin at the start of the 4th millennium in 3001 CE, and continue until…

Evidence: 54 • authority: 92

A General Theory of Scientific Discovery for AI: From Observation to Theory. We propose a context-first framework for future AI agents engaged in scientific discovery. Instead of assuming objects, variables, or coordinates, an agent starts from histories of contexts and observations and compares finitely describable predictive programs. The comparison uses one prequential Minimum Description Length (MDL) code: prediction and description costs share a common coding unit, task frequencies are fixed by an external evaluation protocol, inherited paradigms enter through conditional code length, and covariance tests are coded as held-out predictive channels rather than attached with arbitrary pen…

Evidence: 54 • authority: 72

Determinism is the metaphysical view that all events within the universe can occur only in one possible way. Deterministic theories throughout the history of philosophy have developed from diverse and sometimes overlapping motives and considerations. Like eternalism, determinism focuses on particular events rather than the future as a concept. Determinism is often contrasted with free will, although some philosophers argue that the two are compatible. The antonym of determinism is indeterminism, the view that events are not deterministically caused. Historically, debates about determinism have involved many philosophical positions and given rise to multiple varieties or interpretations of d…

Evidence: 54 • authority: 72

Predictions of apocalyptic events that will result in the extinction of humanity, a collapse of civilization, or the destruction of the planet have been made since at least the beginning of the Common Era. Most predictions are related to Abrahamic religions, often standing for or similar to the eschatological events described in their scriptures. Christian predictions typically refer to events like the Rapture, Great Tribulation, Last Judgment, and the Second Coming of Christ. End-time events are normally predicted to occur within the lifetime of the person making the prediction and are usually made using the Bible—in particular the New Testament—as either the primary or exclusive source fo…

Evidence: 49 • authority: 72

The future is the time after the past and the present. Its arrival is considered inevitable due to the existence of time and the laws of physics. Due to the apparent nature of the reality and the unavoidability of the future, everything that currently exists and will exist can be categorized as either permanent, meaning that it will exist forever, or temporary, meaning that it will end. In the Occidental view, which uses a linear conception of time, the future is the portion of the projected timeline that is anticipated to occur. In special relativity, the future is considered absolute future, or the future light cone. In the philosophy of time, presentism is the belief that only the presen…

Evidence: 39 • authority: 88

What is Scientific Prediction?. This chapter outlines three distinct types of prediction: the premodern notion of prediction as conjecture, the modern notion of prediction articulated in positivism and logical empiricism, and the late modern notion of prediction anchored in cybernetic sensibility. By proposing these three types of prediction, the chapter is not suggesting that this categorization is either precise or complete but rather that it is useful to indicate the historical and conceptual differences that characterize the concept of scientific prediction. These loose types will also help understand the evolution of the Soviet will to predict scientifically as it embraced all of these…

Evidence: 39 • authority: 92

The Cancer Epitope Database and Analysis Resource (CEDAR): current capabilities and future directions.. Cancer epitopes, the molecular structures recognized by T and B cells at the tumor interface, are central to understanding antitumor immunity and developing immunotherapies. Yet despite the rapid growth of cancer immunology data, a comprehensive, continuously updated, and accessible resource for cancer epitope data has been lacking. The Cancer Epitope Database and Analysis Resource (CEDAR, cedar.iedb.org) was established in 2021 to fill this gap, providing curated experimental epitope data alongside a suite of cancer-specific computational tools for epitope prediction and analysis. Built…

Evidence: 39 • authority: 92

Neural network-based study of thermal behaviour in radiative magnetized Casson micropolar nanofluid flow between two disks.. This work examines thermally radiative Casson nanofluid flow through the variable porous space between two circular disks. The flow is subjected to the micro-rotation theory with effects of magnetohydrodynamics in the normal direction of the flow system. The governing equations are first solved using the bvp4c numerical solver to generate accurate reference solutions. These solutions subsequently serve as the foundational training dataset for the artificial neural network (ANN), providing a reliable basis for model training, prediction, and performance validation. Thi…

Evidence: 39 • authority: 72

Precognition (from the Latin prae- 'before', and cognitio 'acquiring knowledge') is the purported psychic phenomenon of seeing, or otherwise becoming directly aware of, events in the future. There is no accepted scientific evidence that precognition is a real effect, and it is widely considered to be pseudoscience. Precognition violates the principle of causality, that an effect cannot occur before its cause. Precognition has been widely believed in throughout history. Despite the lack of scientific evidence, many people believe it to be real; it is still widely reported and remains a topic of research and discussion within the parapsychology community.

Evidence: 39 • authority: 72

The scientific method is an empirical method for acquiring knowledge through careful observation, rigorous skepticism, hypothesis testing, and experimental validation. Developed from ancient and medieval practices, it acknowledges that cognitive assumptions can distort the interpretation of the observation. The scientific method has characterized science since at least the 17th century. Scientific inquiry includes creating a testable hypothesis through inductive reasoning, testing it through experiments and statistical analysis, and adjusting or discarding the hypothesis based on the results. Although procedures vary across fields, the underlying process is often similar. In more detail: th…

Evidence: 39 • authority: 92

Editor's view: What makes a scientist successful?. This editorial examines the nature of scientific discovery by studying the characteristics, methods, and tools that have historically defined a 'successful scientist'. It first considers the traditional hypothesis-driven model of science founded on existing knowledge, testable hypotheses, and experiments based on precise measurements. Through illustrative examples, it distinguishes three types of highly successful scientific contributors: those who formulated novel hypotheses and theories that proved groundbreaking, those who developed transformative measurement tools that enabled experimental testing, and those who managed to do both, even…

Evidence: 38 • authority: 92

Reanalysis data fusion-based tropical cyclone formation prediction network.. This paper proposes a tropical cyclone formation prediction network based on pyramid attention feature extraction and multi-scale feature fusion, aiming to enhance the prediction of whether tropical cloud cluster (TCC) precursors intensify to tropical storm (TS) strength by integrating multi-source reanalysis data. First, reanalysis data from ERA5 and NCEP/NCAR are represented as images at different scales and labeled according to tropical cyclone (TC) formation events derived from the TCC and IBTrACS datasets. The labels include information on whether TC formation occurred and its location. Then, a feature extract…