pogoda: Jet stream

Evidence: 100 • authority: 72

Jet streams are fast flowing, narrow air currents in the atmosphere. It is the physical mechanism of a teleconnection. The main terrestrial jet streams are located near the altitude of the tropopause and are westerly winds, flowing west to east around the globe. The Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere each have a polar jet around their respective polar vortex at around 30,000 ft (5.7 mi; 9.1 km) above sea level and typically travelling at around 110 mph (180 km/h) although often considerably faster. Closer to the equator, somewhat higher and somewhat weaker, is a subtropical jet. The northern polar jet flows over the middle to northern latitudes of North America, Europe, and Asi…

Evidence: 86 • authority: 72

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern, but do have some appearance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not easily predictable. It affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics, and has links (teleconnections) to higher-latitude regions of the world. The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as "El Niño" and the cooling phase as "La Niña". The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric oscillation, which is coupled with the sea temperature change. El Niño is associated with higher than…

Evidence: 74 • authority: 72

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation affects the location of the jet stream, which alters rainfall patterns across the West, Midwest, the Southeast, and throughout the tropics. The shift in the jet stream also leads to shifts in the occurrence of severe weather, and the number of tropical cyclones expected within the tropics in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans affected by changes in the ocean temperature and the subtropical jet stream. The winter will have a negative phase according to the Arctic oscillation (AO).

Evidence: 68 • authority: 72

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a weather phenomenon over the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level (SLP) between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. Through fluctuations in the strength of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and location of storm tracks across the North Atlantic. The NAO was discovered through several studies in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Unlike the El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, the NAO is a largely atmospheric mode. It is one of the most important manifestations of climate fluctuations in the North Atlant…

Evidence: 63 • authority: 72

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the largest element of the intraseasonal (30- to 90-day) variability in the tropical atmosphere. It was discovered in 1971 by Roland Madden and Paul Julian of the American National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It is a large-scale coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical deep atmospheric convection. Unlike a standing pattern like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden–Julian oscillation is a traveling pattern that propagates eastward, at approximately 4 to 8 m/s (14 to 29 km/h; 9 to 18 mph), through the atmosphere above the warm parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. This overall circulation pattern manifests itself…

Evidence: 63 • authority: 92

Tropical origins of the recent trends in Northern Hemisphere wintertime jet streams.. Mid-latitude jet streams are fundamental to global weather and influence high-impact meteorological events. Climate models consistently project a poleward shift of the jets under anthropogenic warming and evidence for such a shift recently emerged in reanalysis data. Here we show that trends in Northern Hemisphere winter jet streams over the past 45 years are closely linked to the increased number of intense mid-latitude precipitation events over a large area in the western North Pacific, themselves favored by tropical precipitation anomalies associated with the more recurrent La-Niña-like conditions but a…

Evidence: 57 • authority: 88

Oceans outside the tropical Pacific influence ENSO when ENSO predictability is poor. Various studies demonstrate that the El Niño Southern Oscillation is influenced by each of the Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean, extra-tropical Pacific Ocean and Southern Ocean. However, there is no cohesive picture of the relative importance of different ocean basins. Furthermore, even when considering only one basin, there is disagreement over the strength of it's influence on ENSO. Differences between previous studies likely arise from differences in their design. Untangling interbasin influences is non-trivial, due to  the need to distinguish between correlation and causation. Investigating these…

Evidence: 51 • authority: 92

Synergies Between Observed Warming and ENSO Episodes on Extreme Events.. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant interannual variability mode of the global climate system with significant effects on a variety of weather conditions, including extremes. Past events illustrate the severe societal consequences this phenomenon has through weather disasters, food security, health, economic growth, migration, and conflict. ENSO's interactions with global warming are not well understood, although they can lead to significant changes in the characteristics of extreme events. Climate conditions in 2024/2025 may favor widespread severe extreme events with global temperature anomalies neari…

Evidence: 46 • authority: 92

Characteristics of climate change and monsoon circulation factors of Yarkant River Basin, China.. Under the background of global warming, frequent monsoon activities significantly influence global climate change, yet their impact mechanisms on non-monsoon regions remain unclear. This study analyzes the abrupt change characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the Yarkant River Basin using data from four meteorological stations from 1961 to 2019, employing Pearson correlation analysis and M-K mutation test. It further investigates the influence of monsoon circulations on the regional climate and predicts future climate trends. The results indicate: (1) The temperature (0.25 °C/10a) a…

Evidence: 46 • authority: 88

Different Roles of Southern and Northern Extra-tropical Pacific in Tropical Pacific Climate Variability and ENSO Prediction.. Observational and modeling studies have elucidated the influence of the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical‐extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low‐frequency (sub‐decadal to decadal) variability in…

Evidence: 46 • authority: 88

El Niño Southern Oscillation influence over the Orinoco low-level jet variability. We studied the most active season of the Orinoco Low-Level jet (OLLJ), December-January-February (DJF), during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation canonical phases, El Niño and La Niña. In particular, we studied the occurrence days of the jet in each month, wind speed, moisture transport and precipitation over northern south America. In terms of the occurrence of the OLLJ, during El Niño in January, the jet exhibits its highest reduction with changes up to 24% in the eastern Colombian plains. On the contrary, during La Niña, the jet exhibits an increase between 6–16% in the frequen…

Evidence: 46 • authority: 92

Tropical-leaning Atlantic Oscillation favors more typhoons toward Asian high-latitude cities.. Poleward migration of Northwest Pacific typhoons brings severe impacts on East Asian high-latitude cities, yet early typhoon climate prediction remains a long-standing scientific challenge. Here we reveal a seemingly-familiar-yet-strange climate oscillation phenomenon, which we name Tropical-leaning Atlantic Oscillation (TAO). Statistical results show that springtime TAO can explain 56% of the variance in a dominant dipole mode of typhoon track variations during July-September of 1979-2023, suggesting that it possesses a robust predictive skill of peak-season typhoon tracks four months in advance.…