nauka: Bible code

Evidence: 100 • authority: 72

The Bible code (Hebrew: הצופן התנ״כי, hatzofen hatanachi), also known as the Torah code, is a purported set of encoded words within a Hebrew text of the Torah that, according to proponents, has predicted significant historical events. The statistical likelihood of the Bible code arising by chance has been thoroughly researched, and it is now widely considered to be statistically insignificant, as similar phenomena can be observed in any sufficiently lengthy text. Although Bible codes have been postulated and studied for centuries, the subject has been popularized in modern times by Michael Drosnin's book The Bible Code (1997) and the movie The Omega Code (1999). Some tests purportedly showi…

Evidence: 40 • authority: 72

The phrase "correlation does not imply causation" refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two events or variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them. The idea that "correlation implies causation" is an example of a questionable-cause logical fallacy, in which two events occurring together are taken to have established a cause-and-effect relationship. This fallacy is also known by the Latin phrase cum hoc ergo propter hoc ('with this, therefore because of this'). This differs from the fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc ('after this, therefore because of this'), in which an event following another i…

Evidence: 34 • authority: 72

Data dredging, also known as data snooping or p-hacking, is the misuse of data analysis to find patterns in data that can be presented as statistically significant, thus dramatically increasing and understating the risk of false positives. This is done by performing many statistical tests on the data and only reporting those that come back with significant results. Thus data dredging is also often a misused or misapplied form of data mining. The process of data dredging involves testing multiple hypotheses using a single data set by exhaustively searching—perhaps for combinations of variables that might show a correlation, and perhaps for groups of cases or observations that show difference…

Evidence: 34 • authority: 92

Critical biblical studies via word frequency analysis: Unveiling text authorship.. The Bible is the product of a complex process of oral and written transmissions that stretched across centuries and traditions. This implies ongoing revision of the "original" or oldest textual layers over the course of hundreds of years. Although critical scholarship recognizes this fact, debates abound regarding the reconstruction of the different layers, their date of composition and their historical backgrounds. Traditional methodologies have grappled with these challenges through textual and diachronic criticism, employing linguistic, stylistic, inner-biblical, archaeological and historical criteria. In…

Evidence: — • authority: 88

Solving the Bible Code Puzzle. A paper of Witztum, Rips and Rosenberg in this journal in 1994 made the extraordinary claim that the Hebrew text of the Book of Genesis encodes events which did not occur until millennia after the text was written. In reply, we argue that Witztum, Rips and Rosenberg’s case is fatally defective, indeed that their result merely reflects on the choices made in designing their experiment and collecting the data for it. We present extensive evidence in support of that conclusion. We also report on many new experiments of our own, all of which failed to detect the alleged phenomenon.

Evidence: — • authority: 88

The Economic Significance of Statistical Insignificance in Structural Entry Models. When evaluating policy counterfactuals in structural entry models, researchers frequently encounter statistically insignificant estimates. This paper shows that such insignificance often reflects equilibrium structure rather than estimation failure. Strategic interaction can mechanically attenuate policy responses, compressing economically meaningful effects into magnitudes that are statistically difficult to detect. To formalize this idea, I introduce the insignificance frontier: the largest policy effect that could remain hidden behind a non-rejection of the null. The frontier provides a model-based detect…

Evidence: — • authority: 92

Still No Evidence for an Effect of the Proportion of Non-Native Speakers on Natural Language Complexity.. In a recent study, I demonstrated that large numbers of L2 (second language) speakers do not appear to influence the morphological or information-theoretic complexity of natural languages. This paper has three primary aims: First, I address recent criticisms of my analyses, showing that the points raised by my critics were already explicitly considered and analysed in my original work. Furthermore, I show that the proposed alternative analyses fail to withstand detailed examination. Second, I introduce new data on the information-theoretic complexity of natural languages, with the estim…